He gets no respect from those Conservative bloggers, no respect I tell ya!
Stacey McCain continues to badger poor Nate Silver, who some think is THE big cheese among poll analysis. Nate, I think, has been built up past his abilities, as he continues to not see the obvious. As McCain puts it Nate Silver approaches a clue and almost gets it:
Nate Silver approaches a clue and almost gets it:
Missed it by that much, as Maxwell Smart might say.
His headline summarizes exactly what Republican poll-mongers have been saying since September, as they see poll after poll with crazy oversamples of Democrats. As for example, the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll that has Obama winning Ohio by 6 points — SIX FREAKING POINTS!— about which Ed Morrissey says, “all you need to know is this: the D/R/I is 38/29/32. In 2008, the exit polls showed a split of 39/31/30, and in 2010 36/37/28.”
Stop for a second and think about that: What this poll is telling us is that partisan ID has shifted 2 points toward Democrats since 2008, which was the best year for Democrats since LBJ won a landslide in ’64. Therefore, we must choose between two alternative explanations:
- Obama is headed toward a world-historic victory based upon the remarkable popularity of the Democratic Party; or
- The poll sample is fucked-up beyond all comprehension.
The issue, the problem with Nate Silver’s model is this, he is using polls that use bad sampling. Samples 2008 and 2010 are decidedly different, and frankly, the numbers from 2008 are likely outdated. A LOT has changed since 2008, not so much from 2010. The economy still stinks, the same issues that caused Democrats to lose badly two year ago remain, excitement levels about voting are still higher among Republicans than Democrats, and Romney continues to hold solid majorities among Independents. Yet, Nate Silver ignores all of that
This morning, because the sun rose in the East, Nate Silver again increased his odds of Obama winning reelection. Silver now estimates Obama’s chances of reelection at a precise 83.7%.
Not 83.6% mind you, not 83.8%, no 83.7%!