Dan lays out a scenario, that,I must say, seems perfectly reasonable to me
There is a reason why we saw so many attacks on Texas Governor Rick Perry early on, even allowing for his self-inflicted debate wounds. He has always been the only real competition for Mitt Romney. That has not changed. Here is how things stand in Iowa today according to Marist.
23% for Mitt Romney (+4)
21% for Ron Paul (+2)
15% for Rick Santorum (+9)
14% for Rick Perry (+4)
13% for Newt Gingrich (-15)
6% for Michele Bachmann (-1)
2% for Jon Huntsman (No change)
7% are undecided (-2)
I don’t care about Paul’s die-hard, and some even fanatical, supporters, he is not a viable Republican candidate for the Oval Office. Santorum has always been all-in in Iowa, basically living there and visiting every district. That and his social conservatism gives him special appeal in Iowa. He’s a good man; however, I do not believe he will be able to attract the kind of money it takes to sustain a long, broad campaign, no matter how he finishes up.
Gingrich has had his run and is now collapsing nationally. I don’t see that trend reversing itself. When Newt gets into trouble, he always doubles down and manages to find a way to make it worse. Hell, he’s already had his first scandal as an executive, resorting to blaming a staffer for fraud that kept him off the ballot in Virginia. And we’re supposed to have faith in this guy to put the right people in some hypothetical administration? I don’t think so. Bachmann is also done. It’s over, call it a day after Iowa, Michelle.
I agree, Bachmann is done, thankfully, Huntsman is a non-factor. Santorum has Iowa and nothing else, sorry Stacy McCain, but I am not sure if I can overcome my natural distrust for any man that wears sweater vests. But seriously, like Dan here I think Santorum IS a good man, but he will not do much outside of Iowa. Newt? Nope!
Dan also predicts, quite correctly, that the Roves and other establishment GOP types will try to crown Romney as soon as Huntsman, and Bachmann drop out. Dan is, I think dead on target about the brutal, and bogus attacks on Perry early on. Perry is the one guy that ultimately Obama fears most, and that scares the Establishment GOP types the most as well.
Dan sums it up very well. If we, the Conservatives can resist the establishment whispering Romney in our ear, we will have a clear choice. And as I have said, a clear chance to REALLY change Washington!
There will be some give and take during what I’ll call stage 2 – see below. What must happen as things shake out is for the other competitors to fall away, leaving Perry as the last not fully DC establishment candidate remaining to oppose Mitt. This is the period during which conservatives must continue to come together and consolidate around Perry as the not-Mitt candidate, if you will. If we do that, the stage will be set for a head-to-head match up on Super Tuesday.
February 4, 2012 Nevada (caucus)
February 4–11, 2012 Maine (caucus)
February 7, 2012 Colorado (caucus)Minnesota (caucus)Missouri (primary) – *See note below on Missouri
February 28, 2012 Arizona (primary)Michigan (primary)
March 3, 2012 Washington (caucus)
It will not be easy and is sure to be a tough, dirty fight. But if conservatives want a nominee more in line with their views, as opposed to Washington’s, then March 6 is the day to ultimately demonstrate it. Even then it will not be over. A positive is that Perry should prove to be the stronger of the two as we move on into the South. The way the schedule plays out, it could very well be a seesaw battle.
But if we can pull this off, conservatives will finally have the fight they want and also be in a position to win it. As a conservative, this is the best case scenario I can envision playing out. But we cannot give up early, or easily. Obviously, Texas Governor Rick Perry and his team must do their part, as well. Barring that, it will be Mitt and quite likely what Hillsdale College History Professor Paul Rahe recently called “just another bump in the long, gentle road leading us to soft despotism” given a Romney nomination and potential victory in 2012.
In the end, we will decide if we want to beat Obama and elect a “Moderate” who will only play at real change, or if we want to beat Obama and elect a Conservative who will do his best to bring real change and reform. Please, my fellow Conservatives, choose wisely.